FORECASTING INDICATORS OF FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY USING THE ARIMA MODEL

Abstract

In this article, in order to improve the effectiveness of foreign trade statistics, it is carried out on the basis of international standards and forecasting using seasonal, structural adjustments and the trend component of the ARIMA model, scientific conclusions and recommendations are given based on the results obtained using this model. Considering that foreign trade is extremely important in the development of the countries of the world, the transition to international standards for preserving differences in official reports between countries in order to increase the transparency of foreign trade processes and the level of confidence in statistical information is a very relevant issue. The fact that the development of Uzbekistan's economy also depends on foreign trade creates a demand for the introduction of international standards in this area. In the construction of the "new Uzbekistan" foreign in addition to further development of trade and statistical analysis on it, it is considered necessary to make forecasts for future periods. At the same time, the fact that our country is a "country with double access to the sea" (remote from the sea) also suggests that there is a great inconvenience in foreign trade and that a lot of statistical research is needed to eliminate it.

               The development of foreign trade, of course, is of great importance in ensuring the sustainable growth of the country's output in the current period, in which we can observe a very gross economic imbalance due to various random situations in the world economy. The study of the development of foreign trade on the basis of statistical patterns, the widespread use in practice of the results of economic analysis leads to a stable growth of all macroeconomic indicators of the country.